Immanuel Wallerstein http://iwallerstein.com Fri, 01 May 2015 18:02:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 The Greek Melodrama, or Who Really Wants What? http://iwallerstein.com/the-greek-melodrama-or-who-really-wants-what/ http://iwallerstein.com/the-greek-melodrama-or-who-really-wants-what/#comments Fri, 01 May 2015 04:00:53 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1918 By any definition, what is going on in Greece today, or rather what is going on between Greece and outside countries and institutions, is a melodrama, a melodrama of epic proportions. What we mean by a melodrama is a dramatic encounter that is deliberately overacted by the many participants. They make threats, implicitly or sometimes explicitly. They draw public lines that cannot be crossed in the negotiations. They make dire predictions of the consequences of not following their recommendations. A melodrama heightens events and insists on moral dichotomies.

In a melodrama, the participants do just about everything they can to make others take the blame for past, present, and future negative consequences. The one thing they do not do is to confess their real priorities, and how their priorities are being served by participating in the melodrama instead of entering into sober discussions aimed at some resolution of the differences.

When and how did this particular encounter begin? The beginning date is precisely what is under contention. There are in fact at least three matters involved in the discussion: the present and future of Greece, the present and future of the eurozone, and the present and future of the European Union. Not all participants are interested in all three issues. And those that are interested have different views about them.

Let us start with Greece. In the years following 1945, the Greek economy seemed to prosper, as did that of a large number of countries. It was called the “Greek economic miracle.” But after the 1970s, Greece did less well, as again did most countries. Nonetheless, until the so-called “great recession” of 2008, there were seemingly few problems for the Greek government.

Greece was admitted to the eurozone in 2000, having supposedly met its formal criteria. When after 2008 government debt rose too much and Greece was thought to be under threat of default, Greece was offered “rescue packages” by outside institutions to enable the government to meet its debt obligations. Indeed there were seven such packages between 2010 and 2013.

The price of the loans was what is called austerity. Basically, this meant that at the very same time that the high rate of unemployment was becoming higher, the safety belt was disappearing. The Greek government pledged to reduce expenditures in a number of ways – the number of persons in its employ, the size of pensions, health benefits, and unemployment benefits. In addition, the government was required to privatize many government structures. The government thus obtained a one-time injection of the sales price but it allowed the privatized structure to practice further austerity measures. All these measures were to be closely supervised by a triad of institutions – the International Monetary Fund, the European Union, and the European Central Bank.

The bottom line was that the vast majority of Greek residents had their standard of living drastically reduced in order that Greek banks not default. Since these banks were in most cases owned in part by other European banks (especially in Germany and Austria), the austerity measures served the interest of these European banks.

An anti-austerity left political movement called Syriza emerged in Greece and finally won electoral power in 2014. The program of this party was to undo or reverse the austerity measures, reject the role of the triad in supervising Greek political life, but still remain a member of the eurozone. This program has proved extremely difficult to realize because it needs a further loan (or reduction of debt payments) in order to minimize the pain felt in the very short run by Greek residents. Although the Syriza Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, asserts confidence that an interim deal can be arranged before a mid-May deadline, most analysts are skeptical.

If a deal is not reached, there will be a so-called Grexit (a term coined to mean Greek exit from the eurozone). The question the world is discussing is what a Grexit would mean. There are three views: a catastrophe for the entire world-economy (and especially for the European Union); a relatively minor event (except of course for Greece); and total uncertainty about what will happen (that is, how the “market” will respond).

There are many actors (and notably Germany’s Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaüble) who insist that a Grexit would be quite tolerable for the eurozone. These people are concerned primarily with one thing – that the principle of repayment of debts be an imperative priority for Greece and for everyone else in the world. Then there are actors who give priority to the survival of the eurozone and worry about a Grexit. In fact, the most notable person in this group is Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel. She fears that a Grexit will not only lead to a disintegration of the eurozone but that in turn a collapse of the eurozone will lead to a collapse of the European Union. She is therefore willing to consider some kinds of accommodation to Syriza’s offer of a compromise.

The third view – the view of total uncertainty – is however the correct one. It is the only view that takes account of the fact that the world is in a chaotic bifurcation, in which there is no way of predicting how the “market” or any other institution will react. Since most investors are consumed with uncertainty, their reactions lead to wild oscillations and frequent freezes. One has therefore to choose one’s priorities. Syriza’s is to minimize the pain of the great majority. This seems to me a much more admirable priority than preserving the sanctity of debt repayment.

Of course, Syriza is juggling a very difficult series of short-run choices in order to realize its priority. It may make misjudgments or, even worse, serious concessions that negate its electoral promises. The next two months will tell.

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Negotiations and Their Enemies http://iwallerstein.com/negotiations-and-their-enemies/ http://iwallerstein.com/negotiations-and-their-enemies/#comments Wed, 15 Apr 2015 04:00:21 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1916 Perhaps the correct title should be “negotiators and their enemies.” These days, negotiations are very much in the news. The United States is negotiating with Cuba, with Iran and, most recently it seems, with Venezuela. The government of Colombia is negotiating with a long-time anti-government movement, the FARC.

Then, there are the pre-negotiations that may not get to the stage of negotiation: Russia and the European Union (and within that, the Kiev government of Ukraine and the “autonomist” governments in Donetsk and Lutsk; China and the United States; the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.

And finally, in the spirit of Sherlock Holmes’s mystery about “the dog that didn’t bark,” there are the negotiations that are NOT taking place: Israel and the Palestinians; Iran and Saudi Arabia; China and Japan.

What does a focus on such negotiations, including those that are not taking place, tell us about the state of the world? The first is that, the closer one is to real negotiations, the fiercer the opposition to an accord turns out to be. Those in favor are somewhat hesitant and always unsure that they can carry their own supporters along on any arrangement upon which there is a public accord with the other side. But those opposed are not at all hesitant. They are ferocious and very angry and use whatever leverage they have to block or sabotage the negotiations.

Are negotiations a good thing? That’s exactly what the argument is about. The greatest plus about negotiations that end in some kind of compromise accord is that they reduce – reduce, not eliminate – the suffering that continuing conflict imposes upon almost everybody. A second plus is that those who favor continuing the conflict constantly argue that the way to win is to increase the pressure – more military action, more blockades, more torture. As a result, there is a creeping increase in the violence over time, something that an accord stops, more or less.

But there is also a big negative. The other side survives, and sometimes even thrives. The accord legitimates them. And if they are attacked politically, they can argue – they do argue – that their accusers are trying to revive the conflict and undermine the accord. Peace, if that is what we call it, tends to be at the price of not challenging the underlying injustices that provoked the conflict in the first place. We see this in the post-accord role of the erstwhile revolutionaries in such countries as El Salvador and Guatemala.

When do such negotiations, such accords, occur? One crucial element is internal political exhaustion combined with military deadlock. But this is usually not enough. The second crucial element is outside geopolitical pressure. Countries not involved directly in the conflict, but somehow tied to one or the other of the two sides in a negotiation, find it in their third-country interest that the conflict should be terminated. They have acquired an interest in the conflict, their interest requiring that the conflict cease. If the United States and Cuba are negotiating today, the explanation lies in the combination of internal pressures in the case of Cuba and external pressures in the case of the United States.

If we look at the two most glaring absences of negotiations – Saudi Arabia and Iran, Japan and China – why the ever more angry rhetoric, why so much hostility? An anthropologist coming from Mars might find it hard to believe. Saudi Arabia and Iran share a deep commitment to an Islamic culture and a strong endorsement of shari’a. Japan and China share a long mutual commitment to an interlaced set of cultural values and even linguistic structures and symbols.

 

And yet they are denouncing each other, and are pursuing the geopolitical objective of weakening the other in terms of geopolitical power and influence. These days, they are deliberately invoking those parts of their cultural heritages that differentiate them from the other rather than those parts that in fact bring them together.

 

Why, why, why? One answer is that the leadership in each of these countries finds it in their internal interests to retain the image of the other as an enemy. Faced with deep internal schisms that could tear these countries apart, they appeal to national cohesion in the face of a presumed external threat. A second reason is that external forces urge on the conflict because it is in the interest of these third countries that the hostilities exist and are defined in certain ways.

 

Negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran would impair the interest of the United States, Turkey, Pakistan, Israel, and many others. Negotiations between China and Japan would upset not only the United States but India and perhaps Russia as well. Thus in these two putative negotiations we find conditions that are the exact opposite of the cases where negotiations are now going on. In the ongoing negotiations, there is positive internal pressure and positive external pressure. In the places where there are no signs of serious negotiations, we have negative internal pressures and negative external pressures.

 

Where then are we heading? We must always remember that geopolitics is a fluid game, and most particularly in this time of structural crisis of the modern world-system with its chaotic and rapid swings in all arenas, not least in geopolitical alignments. The ambiance can change, and quite unexpectedly. Remember that pre-negotiations tend to be secret – the more secret the more successful. For all we know, they are going on right now. It may be that only when the secret leaks and we know negotiations have started that the enemies will mobilize and try to sabotage them. And of course quite often the enemies of negotiations win out. They are working very hard right now to make the potential U.S.-Iranian accord fail. In the case of this potential accord, I hope an agreement is reached, since its positives far outweigh its negatives.

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Netanyahu: The Message is Clear http://iwallerstein.com/netanyahu-the-message-is-clear/ http://iwallerstein.com/netanyahu-the-message-is-clear/#comments Wed, 01 Apr 2015 04:00:07 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1913 Binyamin “Bibi” Netanyahu won an impressive electoral victory in Israel on March 17. He did it by making two last-minute public statements. One was that there would be no Palestinian state while he is President. He thus formally reneged on his commitment to a two-state outcome to the negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestine Authority. The second statement was to “alert” voters to a significant Arab turnout in the elections. This of course was pure demagoguery, but it worked.

He has not only remained the most successful Israeli politician in the last few decades. But he did it all by careful calculation. The story started several weeks ago when Israeli polls showed a significant rise in the prospective vote for the so-called Zionist Union, led by the leader of Israel’s center-left Labor Party, Isaac Herzog. This group carefully avoided saying much about the Palestinians except that they would renew negotiations. Rather, they built their campaign on purely internal economic issues, promising more welfare state benefits.

First, Netanyahu responded to (possibly instigated) an invitation from U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner to address a Joint Session of Congress. This was a largely unprecedented intrusion of a foreign head of state in U.S. policy-making. President Obama was very upset and refused to meet Netanyahu during his brief visit to the United States.

Netanyahu spoke to an enthusiastic audience of Republicans along with a partial boycott of attendance by Democrats. The object for Netanyahu was to mobilize Jewish Israelis not to vote for other rightwing candidates in the first round of voting but to cast a “useful vote” for Netanyahu. In this he succeeded remarkably strongly.

In the process of course he deeply antagonized Obama, who said the United States would now have to re-evaluate its relations with Israel. Netanyahu then back-tracked slightly on his statement about further negotiations with the Palestinians, and apologized for his fear-mongering about Arab turnout for the elections. Obama was not appeased, saying the he took Netanyahu at his word about a two-state outcome.

So, what, everyone is asking, will happen now? Just before the elections, a group of distinguished Israeli security figures issued a statement, saying in effect that Netanyahu’s approach was alienating the United States and that this was desperately bad for Israel’s future as a Jewish state. Were they right? The answer is yes and no.

Let’s start with the basic dilemma of the majority of Jewish Israelis. They want neither a two-state nor a one-state outcome. They know that a two-state solution requires a major retreat on post-1973 Jewish settlements as well as a possibility for at least some Palestinians to return from exile. They find this unacceptable. And, given the demographic evolution, they fear that a two-state solution is simply a one-state solution that is delayed. As for the one-state solution, it means renouncing the basic Zionist idea of a Jewish state.

Faced with this dilemma, they like Netanyahu’s strategy: delay, delay, delay! And, if anyone tries to force the pace, be ready to fight militarily against whatever opponent poses itself as an immediate threat.

There is however one basic difficulty with this strategy: It is straining the world’s patience, and most critically the patience of those who have been more or less faithful supporters of the Israeli government’s positions – the major European states, the Palestinian Authority, so-called moderate Arab opinion, and yes, even the United States.

There has been a worldwide transformation of the perception of Israel as a “victim” to that of Israel as a “persecutor.” This is a nightmare for the Zionist cause in Israel. It can only get worse for Israel. There may even come a point, perhaps still a few years from now, that the United States will no longer be willing to veto resolutions in the U.N. Security Council that are critical of Israel.

Two things can happen then. The world can see a dramatic reconsideration of received verities on all sides, as seemed to have happened in South Africa. This reversal permitted a major political change combined with very little economic change. It however involved no bloodshed. Or, alternatively, this won’t happen. And there will be a major war, in which the Jewish Israelis will use all their military strength to defeat anything resembling another intifada.

The message from Netanyahu is clear. He prefers the major war, and so do the voters who elected him.

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Turkey and the Kurds: A Possible Agreement http://iwallerstein.com/turkey-and-the-kurds-a-possible-agreement/ http://iwallerstein.com/turkey-and-the-kurds-a-possible-agreement/#comments Sun, 15 Mar 2015 04:00:16 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1910 There seems now to be a real possibility of an agreement between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) that would end the fierce struggle that dates at the least from the establishment of the Turkish Republic in 1923.

The issue has been quite straightforward from the beginning. In the wake of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, a group of Turkish nationalists led by Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk) seized power and established a secular republic, whose boundaries included essentially the areas known as Anatolia and Thrace. Like most nationalists newly-arrived in power, this group was Jacobin in its ideology. It had established a republic of the Turks and basically only for the Turks.

The ethnic struggles with the Armenians are well known and of course subject to endless debate about what in fact happened. Today, most analysts worldwide accept the Armenian version of this history as more correct and consider that there was in effect an ethnic cleansing.

Kurdish-speaking populations are to be found today in four different states – Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Kurdish nationalists have long sought to achieve some kind of Kurdish state combining the groups in all four countries. Thus far, this attempt has not been successful and Kurdish nationalists in all four countries have reoriented their objectives to meaningful autonomy within each of the four states.

In the case of Turkey, the Kurdish speakers are concentrated in the southeastern corner of the Turkish state. In 1976, the banner of Kurdish nationalism was assumed by the PKK, which presented itself as a Marxist-Leninist movement ready to engage in insurrection against a Turkish government that was unwilling to accord any political, cultural, or linguistic rights to Kurdish speakers. Indeed, the Turkish government refused to recognize the very existence of Kurds, calling them Mountain Turks. An ongoing military struggle between the Turkish government and the PKK ensued.

In 1999, the leader of the PKK, Abdallah Ocalan, was captured by the Turkish government with the assistance of the CIA. He was tried for treason and terrorism and condemned to death. The sentence was then commuted to life imprisonment in total isolation in an island prison. Meanwhile, Ocalan’s worldview was evolving, and he ceased to believe that Marxism-Leninism should be the organizing ideology of the PKK. At the same time, various PKK groups continued the armed struggle.

In 2002, an Islamist political party, now called the AKP, came to power in Turkey, ousting the secular nationalists that had long dominated the parliament, and upsetting military leaders who were committed to strict secularism. The leader of the AKP, Recep Erdogan, has managed to win three successive elections and the AKP now seems securely in political control of the state.

To widespread surprise, in 2012 Erdogan began negotiations, which were initially secret, with the PKK and therefore with Ocalan. Both sides have been debating what might be an acceptable resolution of the conflict and the long-standing differences over Kurdish rights and autonomy. What seems to have impelled this attempt at a political settlement is the sense that both sides had begun to have that neither is capable of winning the military struggle outright. Like other civil wars, an element of exhaustion began to play a role leading rival forces to consider some kind of compromise.

Compromises are always painful and there are always militants on each side who find them unacceptable. The standard questions are what each side is actually getting in the prospective accord and the degree to which they can get the support of their political base.

In order to move forward, Turkey must adopt a new constitution. The AKP is anxious to expand considerably the power of the president, to which other parties are opposed. The PKK is anxious to include in such a new constitution various clauses that would recognize the Kurds as a people with rights equal to those of the Turks. The PKK wants some language in the constitution that would recognize the Kurds as a co-founding people of modern Turkey.

One difficult issue to resolve in detail is the cessation of hostilities. The Turkish government and the PKK have agreed to the withdrawal of PKK armed forces to the Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq. This withdrawal has already begun. But there has been no disarmament, and the PKK units do not intend to disarm until more concrete progress is made. Whether Ocalan will be permitted to have his custody remitted to his own home in Turkey is one matter that is in discussion and seems likely.

The urgency for the PKK and the major achievement would be the recognition of Kurdish rights, although the term, autonomy, may not be included. The urgency for the AKP is that, in order to get the 75% in the Turkish parliament needed to adopt a new constitution, they may need the votes of Kurdish members of parliament.

So, amidst much caution and continuing mutual suspicion, the two sides are moving significantly closer to a deal. With some difficulty, Ocalan will probably be able to bring his base in line with the prospective arrangements. He remains a Kurdish hero. If the deal goes through, the Kurds will have achieved linguistic and cultural rights. It remains to be seen how much the economic situation of the ordinary Kurds will improve.

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Combating the Islamic State: The Real Options http://iwallerstein.com/combating-the-islamic-state-the-real-options/ http://iwallerstein.com/combating-the-islamic-state-the-real-options/#comments Mon, 02 Mar 2015 05:00:49 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1904 The Islamic State (IS) is pursuing its clearly stated objective of a greatly expanded caliphate by using extreme brutality deliberately. It expects that the extreme brutality will force others either to accede to their demands or to withdraw from the scene. Just about everyone in the Middle East and beyond are both horrified and deeply frightened by the successes thus far of the IS.

What has made it so difficult for opponents of the IS to make headway is their unwillingness to understand that it has been the follies and misplaced priorities of the opponents of the IS that have made it possible for IS to emerge and to pose such a threat.

The IS claims that it is acting out of religious motives ordained by the Koran. And most probably their adherents believe this, which of course makes it almost impossible to negotiate with them in any manner. This is what makes them different from previous so-called Salafist movements that have been around for some time. Al Qaeda, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Taliban were all movements that combined militancy with pragmatism.

Today, the mainstream Arab Muslim movements, the governments of the Arab states, as well as the outside powers involved in the region (United States, western Europe, Russia, Turkey, Iran) all denounce the IS. However, it is widely believed that the IS has the support, or at least the benevolent neutrality, of the ordinary Sunni Muslims in the Islamic world, at least that of younger persons. These ordinary persons are streaming into zones controlled by the IS in great numbers. Persons involved in other Salafist movements are shifting allegiances to the IS.

What is it that is impelling this new attitude? It is not shar’ia law. That was after all there before. Shar’ia law is merely the covering to justify the brutal actions. Of course, once it gets a religious covering like this, it hardens the commitment. But the prime factor that underlies this impulse is a sense of hopelessness. Other movements and states – both secularist and Salafist – have failed to relieve significantly the oppression that these young Muslims feel. The IS offers hope. Perhaps one day the converts will be disillusioned, but that moment is not yet arrived.

Why then cannot there be a coalition of those who are opposed to the IS and its expansionary threats? The answer is very simple. They all have other priorities. The Egyptian government is fighting first of all the Muslim Brotherhood. The Saudi government is fighting first of all Iran and anyone who threatens their claim to leadership of Sunni Muslims in the Middle East. The Qataris are fighting first of all the Saudi government. The government of Bahrain gives priority to suppressing the Shias who are numerically the vast majority. The Iranian government is fighting first of all Sunni forces in Iraq. The Turkish government is fighting first of all Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. The Kurdish movements are fighting not only for their autonomy (or independence) but also each other. The Russian and the U.S. governments are both giving priority to their mutual quarrels. And the Israelis are fighting primarily Iran and the Palestinians. Name one that puts fighting the IS at the top of its list.

This is absolutely crazy. Can anything break through this irrational schema of false priorities? Obviously, there is a dire need to create conditions in which the Sunni-Shia schism is superseded by one in which whichever is the social minority in a given state has rights to reasonable participation in governance and reasonable social autonomy. Were an accord to be achieved between the United States and Iran, they could in fact do a lot militarily and politically together to retake northwest Iraq from the IS. But will their respective hardliners really permit this?

What, you may ask, about existing dictatorships? Should we not be struggling against them? The efforts to do so as the great priority has actually reinforced them. The fears created by the IS have actually reduced in major ways the civil rights of citizens and residents in the United States and western Europe. There is massive hypocrisy concerning which tyrants are being opposed. In effect, everyone protects the tyrants that are their geopolitical ally and denounces the tyrants that are not.

It is long past time to revise radically our priorities. The likelihood of doing this, I admit, seems small at the moment. But the fact is, there is no other choice.

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Multiculturalism and Its Dilemmas http://iwallerstein.com/multiculturalism-and-its-dilemmas/ http://iwallerstein.com/multiculturalism-and-its-dilemmas/#comments Mon, 16 Feb 2015 05:00:59 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1900 Debate about something called multiculturalism is very widespread and passionate these days throughout the world. Both its advocates and those who denounce it seem to be under the illusion that multiculturalism is something very new. But it isn’t new at all. Multiculturalism is as old as human cultures have existed. And it has always been the subject of passionate debate.

Wherever humans resided, there have always been groups that consider themselves somehow more indigenous to the region than others. The “indigenous” have tended to use a rhetoric of cultural purity, which they see as being defiled, or threatened, by others who are marginal or newly-arrived in the region, and who have therefore fewer rights than the indigenous groups (or no rights whatsoever). The response of this latter group has always been to claim some version or other of multiculturalism. That is, they have argued in favor of according equal rights to all (or most) residents, whether or not they share some of the cultural practices of the self-styled “indigenous” population.

Humans have always been on the move for many reasons. One is ecological exhaustion of the area from which they are moving. Another is the attraction of a higher standard of living elsewhere. A third is that for some reason they are being chased out of the area from which they are moving. The reality is that, if we trace descent far enough into the past, no one is where their ancestors once were. We are all migrants. We are none of us indigenous except by suppressing historical reality.

To be sure, this issue has caused more acute strife in recent decades for two simple reasons. Technological advances in transport and communications make it far easier to migrate further and faster than in earlier times. And the polarization of the world-system is much greater, making it considerably more tempting for persons in poorer countries to move to richer countries.

In addition, the fact that we are living amid the structural crisis of the modern world-system has meant that the rate of real unemployment has mounted very sharply. Hence the search for scapegoats has led to focusing on the migrants who are supposedly the cause of the high unemployment rates in the wealthier countries.

The pattern of moving up the ladder of wealth of countries applies of course to persons from the Global South migrating to the Global North. Let us say Mexico to the United States, Morocco to France, Philippines to Japan. It applies as well further down the ladder of wealth. Let us say Guatemala to Mexico, Mozambique to South Africa, Paraguay to Brazil. In every case, there is always a reaction from the receiving country demanding the exclusion or expulsion of the in-migrants, ostensibly to preserve jobs in the receiving country as well as to preserve the so-called indigenous culture.

Rhetoric against multiculturalism serves (and is intended to serve) to get normally left voters in any country to support those who use the xenophobic language of the right and far right movements. And no doubt it often succeeds in doing this. Rhetoric in favor of multiculturalism serves (and is intended to serve) to get normally relatively centrist voters to support movements further left as a bulwark about xenophobia. And no doubt it often succeeds in doing this.

What do we know about what really happens in most countries? In one way or another, all countries are multicultural. That is, there are groups of persons who have distinguishable cultural practices. They have different religions or languages or marriage customs. These different customs are pursued with different degrees of diligence. In periods that are not too stressful in economic terms, there is a good deal of neighborly interaction between persons of different groups, and often considerable intermarriage, further rendering the group distinctions less important and more difficult to discern.

In times, however, of economic stress, xenophobic themes grow more important in popular discourse and often lead to acute strife. Neighbors turn against neighbors. Children of intergroup marriages are forced to avow allegiance to one or the other group. Countries become more protectionist. Legal freedom of movement across frontiers becomes more difficult. There is a considerable increase in violence of all kinds.

To be sure, we need to distinguish between different situations in terms of the demographics. There have been zones in which an existing population was submerged by a relatively large and strong in-migrating population, which wiped out (or totally subordinated) the groups that had been there. Think of the Taino in Caribbean islands or the Fijians faced with a Hindu in-migration in the Pacific.

And then there are in-migrations of wealthy persons from the Global North into zones where they buy out the desirable land, raise costs generally, and force groups that had been previously there into marginal existences. This is now happening around the globe in zones that are climatically more desirable.

The claims of the “indigenous” groups to maintaining their cultural patterns and collective values has a quite different tonality in the case of resistance to in-migration of groups at the bottom of some social scale than of persons at the top of some social scale. And herein precisely are the dilemmas. Are we capable of understanding and acting on this distinction? Can we pursue sensibly different policies in the two cases? Can we in effect support the inevitable and desirable form of multiculturalism that is the basis of a fruitful peaceful interchange of cultural values? Or will we succumb to xenophobic ethnic cleansings across the world?

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Panic About Panic: Russia and the World-System Today http://iwallerstein.com/panic-about-panic-russia-and-the-world-system-today/ http://iwallerstein.com/panic-about-panic-russia-and-the-world-system-today/#comments Mon, 02 Feb 2015 18:08:33 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1894 Visiting Russia, which I recently did, is a strange experience for someone coming from the Global North. As we know, most Russians have an entirely different reading of recent world history from most persons in the Global North. In addition, however, they are concerned about things other than what visitors expect them to be concerned about.

The one common assumption that transcends these differences is the fact that the occurrence of a sharp drop in world oil and gas prices combined with the embargo imposed by some countries on Russia has created an economic squeeze on Russian state expenditures and individual consumption.

In Russia today almost everyone across the political spectrum believes that the West, and the United States in particular, has conspired with some others – principally Saudi Arabia and Israel – to “punish” Russia for its actions and alleged misdeeds in pursuing what Russians regard as the legitimate defense of their national interests. The debate centers primarily on Ukraine, but includes as well to a lesser degree Syria and Iran. The conspiracy theory is probably a bit exaggerated, since the United States started developing its shale oil (a major factor in today’s world oversupply) already in 1973 as a response to the OPEC price rise.

Yet, one doesn’t hear much discussion of these foreign policy issues in Russia. This is probably because there is not too much dissent inside Russia concerning Russia’s official foreign policy positions, not even from persons or groups very critical of President Putin on other matters. What one hears discussed instead is how best to handle the acute budgetary shortfall that the Russian state is facing.

There are three basic positions. One is to reduce significantly state expenditures. We might call this the neoliberal option. It is espoused by the Minister of Finance. The second is to use the reserves still available to the Russian state, thus minimizing the need to reduce expenditures immediately. We might call this the social-democratic option. It is espoused by the Minister of Economic Development. The third is to use up one of the two sets of reserves but not the other. We might call this the midway option. This would ensure stability for probably eighteen months and is based on the hope that somehow the world price of oil and gas will begin to rise again by then and/or that the sanctions will be annulled or largely circumvented.

The remarkable thing is that all three positions are espoused within the relatively small group of decision-makers surrounding President Putin. So far, it seems that Putin himself is in the camp favoring the midway option. What is also remarkable is that this debate is quasi-public. At least, it is no secret to any Russian who follows the public statements of the protagonists as well as the leaks to a press that is more diverse than commentators in the West normally suggest.

There is however a lurking danger caused by this quasi-public debate. It is that Russian entrepreneurs, banks, and the general public (particularly the wealthier persons) panic, believing that an option they fear will prevail and that in consequence extensive withdrawals of resources would lead to a rush to the banks and major inflation. If there is a panic of this kind, then none of the options can succeed in enabling the state to survive the financial squeeze.

Hence there was great notice of a speech made by Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev at the Gaidar Forum on January 14. Medvedev announced that the state was going to pursue the midway option. He asked everyone to rally around this option, precisely in order to squelch panic. Indeed he ended his speech by citing the famous saying of President Franklin Roosevelt in 1933: “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Medvedev said that the Russian government is not afraid.

But will such a statement suffice to ensure that there is no panic? Medvedev’s speech however did not totally contain the panic. The debate about Medvedev’s pronouncement revealed that many persons and groups are not persuaded that there will not be a panic. There is what I would call a panic about panic.

Putin’s mode of containing the panic about panic is to pursue what he thinks is a carefully-measured strong and clear foreign policy. The decision to replace the so-called South Stream (a gas and oil Black Sea pipeline from Russia to Bulgaria that Bulgaria no longer will permit because of the sanctions) with a Turkish Stream (a different Black Sea pipeline going from Russia to Turkey) is a first such step. Both streams would hurt Ukraine by not sending Russia gas and oil via Ukraine and therefore eliminating Ukraine’s transit fees. However, the Turkish Stream is also intended to counteract the effect of sanctions (that led to Bulgaria’s change of position) and reward Turkey, now increasingly an ally of Russia.

A second step has been the decision to enter into accords with China and other countries to engage in currency transactions in their own currencies, thereby avoiding the fluctuations of the dollar. One of the resulting projects would be a pipeline across Siberia to Northeast Asia, financed heavily by China. This is a way of circumventing the sanctions.

A third step has been the just announced transmission of the S-300 air defense missile system to Iran. Long promised, Russia had cancelled the arrangement in 2010 as result of pressure from the West. Russia is now going to fulfil its initial promise. This serves to reinforce Russian support for Iran’s inclusion in the decision-making processes of West Asia. It both puts pressure on the United States and helps to check Saudi Arabia’s attempt to maintain itself as the key Sunni Arab state. Already, with the accession of King Salman, the press is full of discussion about the fragility of the Saudi position.

Finally, in Ukraine, the Russians pursue a careful policy. Not totally in control of the Donetsk-Luhansk autonomists, Russia is nonetheless making sure that the autonomists cannot be eliminated militarily. The Russian price for real peace is a commitment by NATO that Ukraine is not a potential member, about which there are different views within NATO. Everyone is playing a high risk game in Ukraine. My guess, and it is in large measure a guess, is that sanity will prevail and a political deal realized. I would say, watch Angela Merkel after the German elections. She (and Germany) want a deal but are not yet free to pursue it.

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It is Painful to Live Amidst Chaos http://iwallerstein.com/it-is-painful-to-live-amidst-chaos/ http://iwallerstein.com/it-is-painful-to-live-amidst-chaos/#comments Thu, 15 Jan 2015 05:00:10 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1890 The world-system is in serious trouble and it is causing pain to the vast majority of the world’s population. Pundits and politicians grasp at straws. They magnify every momentary, and usually transitory, occurrence of slight improvements in the various measures we are accustomed to using.

In the last month or so, we were suddenly being told as the calendar year ended that the market looked much better in the United States, even if it looked worse in Europe, Russia, China, Brazil and many other places. But as the New Year began, there was a serious decline in both stocks and bond prices in the United States. It was a quick and sharp turnaround. Of course, the pundits immediately had explanations, but they offered a wide gamut of explanations.

The real question in any case is not the prices of the stock and bond markets in any given country. It is the picture of the world-system as a whole, which doesn’t seem to me to look very good at all. Let us start with the principal measure utilized by Establishment thinkers – “growth” rates.

By growth rates, we tend to mean prices in the stock market. Of course, as we know and is obvious, many things can lead to a rise of stock prices other than an improved economy, first of all speculation. Speculation has become so easy and so entrenched in the everyday activity of large operators in the world market that we have begun to assume that this is not only normal but more or less desirable. In any case, we tend to argue that there is nothing anyone can do that can stop it, should we wish to do so. This last assumption is probably correct, which is precisely the problem.

In my view, the only figure that measures the well-being of the world-economy and the well-being of the vast majority of the world population is employment rates. As far as I can tell, unemployment has been abnormally high for quite a while now if one looks at the world as a whole. Furthermore, the rate has been creeping up steadily, rather than the reverse, for the last 30-40 years. The best we seem to be able to anticipate is that the rate will stabilize where it is. Reversing the trend does not seem likely. Of course, if you measure employment rates country by country, they vary and they oscillate. But worldwide the rate of unemployment has been rather regularly rising.

The reality is that we are living amidst a wildly oscillating world-system, and this is very painful. Employment rates are not the only measures that oscillate. They simply measure the most immediate source of pain. Exchange rates between major currencies are also a visible source of pain for persons at all levels of income. At the moment, the dollar is rising rapidly vis-à-vis most other currencies. A rising currency rate favors cheap imports and lowers inflation. But it hurts exporters as we know and risks longer-term deflation.

Energy costs are also wildly oscillating. The most obvious example is oil. The price was first on a sharp rise across the world during most of 2014, giving enormous income and political power to countries which were producers (as well as to states within North America that were producers). Then, seemingly all of a sudden, there was said to be a glut on the market, and the prices of energy began catapulting downward to a quite low level. Those political structures that had profited from the upswing now face both a rise in sovereign debt and unhappy citizens.

To be sure, there is a political factor involved in these wild swings. But the ability of even large producers, such as Saudi Arabia or Texas, to affect the price swings should they want to do so is vastly overstated. These swings are like tornados ripping open houses in their way. In the process, banking institutions that had bet on the direction of prices (either way) find themselves in radical trouble, and no longer with a guaranteed back-up from their governments.

Geopolitical alliances are almost as unstable as the market. The United States has lost its unquestioned hegemony of the world-system and we have moved into a multipolar world. U.S. decline started not recently but in 1968. It was for a long time a slow decline, but it became precipitate after 2003 as a result of the disastrous attempt to reverse the decline by the invasion of Iraq.

Our multipolar world has perhaps 10-12 powers strong enough to pursue relatively autonomous policies. However, ten to twelve is too large a number for any of them to be sure their views can prevail. As a result, these powers are constantly shuffling alliances in order not to be outmaneuvered by the others.

Many, if not most, geopolitical decisions are impossible to control, even by stronger powers, because there are no good options available. Look at what’s happening in the European Union. Greece is about to have elections, in which it seems that Syriza, the anti-austerity party, may win. Syriza’s policy is to demand a revision of the austerity measures that were imposed on Greece by a coalition of Germany, France, the International Monetary Fund, and indirectly the U.S. Treasury. Syriza says that it does not wish to leave the euro and will not do so.

Germany says it will not be “blackmailed” by Greece into altering its policy. Blackmailed? Little Greece can blackmail Germany? In a sense the Germans are right. Greece under Syriza would be playing hardball. The Euro zone has no treaty provision either for withdrawal or for expulsion. If the strong powers try to expel Greece from the euro zone, a large number of countries may rush to withdraw for good and bad reasons.

Soon the euro zone might not exist at all, with Germany the single biggest loser. So, from Germany’s (and France’s) point of view, the Greek demands are a lose-lose proposition. Germany at the moment sticks to its position but has softened the threat of expulsion. France has said that it is against expulsion. This serves Syriza’s objectives. That Germany in particular loses whichever stance it now chooses is one of the political consequences of chaos.

The world-system is self-destructing. The world-system is in what the scientists of complexity call a bifurcation. This means that the present system cannot survive, and that the real question is what will replace it. While we cannot predict what kind of new system will emerge, we can affect the choice between the substantive alternatives available. But we can only hope to do this by a realistic analysis of existing chaotic swings and not hide our political efforts behind delusions about reforming the existing system or by deliberate attempts to obfuscate our understanding.

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Cuba and the United States Resume Relations: Happy New Year! http://iwallerstein.com/cuba-and-the-united-states-resume-relations-happy-new-year/ http://iwallerstein.com/cuba-and-the-united-states-resume-relations-happy-new-year/#comments Thu, 01 Jan 2015 05:00:51 +0000 http://iwallerstein.com/?p=1878 On Dec. 17, 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raúl Castro simultaneously announced that the two countries would resume normal diplomatic relations, which President Dwight D. Eisenhower had ended in January, 1961. The mutual decision was the outcome of 18 months of quite secret negotiations, sufficiently secret so that the announcements were a surprise.

It quickly became common knowledge that Pope Francis had actively encouraged this resumption. Emissaries of the two countries met at the Vatican, and Pope Francis along with the Cuban Archbishop of Havana, Cardinal Jaime Ortega, had played a key role in brokering the deal. Both presidents expressed open appreciation for the Vatican’s assistance. This meeting was the last step before the 45-minute telephone call between the two presidents.

Less noticed, but also important, was the role played by Prime Minister Stephen Harper of Canada, who “facilitated” the dialogue by hosting initial talks in Canada, a role acknowledged and appreciated by both presidents. Harper’s involvement was important because his general politics resemble those of mainstream Republican politicians in the United States, except that Canada had never broken diplomatic relations with Cuba.

Reaction within the United States has been mixed. The accord was predictably denounced by leading Republican politicians, with some notable exceptions: Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona and Sen. Rand Paul. It was however strongly supported by the Catholic Church, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in a public statement, Human Rights Watch, and large grain agricultural enterprises. It was also well received in public opinion polls and, it seems, among a majority of younger Cuban-Americans. It was notably dealt with cautiously but not hostilely by the Miami Herald, a major news source for Cuban-Americans. It called the accord “a roll of the dice” and said that, although the decision was an act of courage and the beginning of a new era, the outcome was uncertain. The newspaper hoped that the “gamble” would pay off.

Reaction outside the United States was largely very positive. It was hailed throughout Latin America – publicly by Ernesto Samper, secretary-general of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR); José Miguel Insulza, secretary-general of the Organization of American States (OAS); and by the quite conservative President of Panama Juan Carlos Varela, the host of next April’s 7th summit of the Americas, who sees the acceptance by both presidents to come to Panama as the realization of a “dream” to have a united region. Approval was expressed throughout Europe, Asia, and Africa as well.

If a major accord is realized between two countries that have expressed such constant and open hostility for more than a half-century, there must be some significant advantage in it for both sides. Obama made as his key argument: “These 50 years have shown that isolation has not worked.” He said the United States maintains its commitments to freedom for Cuba. “The question is how we uphold that commitment. I do not believe we can keep doing the same thing for over five decades and expect a different result.”

Castro’s emphasis in his announcement was slightly different. “We have been able to make headway in the solution of some topics of mutual interest to both parties…. The progress made in our exchanges proves that it is possible to find solutions to many problems.” However, the heart of the matter remained the blockade which “must cease.” Nonetheless, “President Obama’s decision deserves the respect and acknowledgment of our people.”

So, what was in fact decided? What did each side yield? There was an exchange of prisoners. This is wonderful for the prisoners but in itself it is not unusual, even for the deadliest of enemies. Obama is easing restrictions on remittances, banking, and travel, while not ending the restrictions entirely. Some argue that he has however eased them just enough to make the restrictions almost meaningless. Castro will allow more internet access and has released 53 Cuban political prisoners. Obama has instructed Secretary of State John Kerry to begin the process of removing Cuba from the list of states that sponsor terrorism. He announced his willingness to be at hemispheric meetings along with Castro, saying in Spanish “somos todos americanos.”

In the end, both sides have had the same internal debate. Does a hard line break the opponent? Does a rapprochement between the two melt the other? This was the debate on both sides that preceded the so-called détente of the United States and the Soviet Union, the meeting between Richard Nixon and Mao Zedong in Beijing, and the resumptions of normal relations between Vietnam and the United States. Experience has shown that neither breaking nor melting actually occurred.

For Brazilian left analyst Emir Sader, Cuba is victorious. It has forced the burial of the cold war logic that prevailed up to now. At first Cuba was isolated by the United States. But over 50 years, they have reversed the situation. It became the United States that was isolated. They have achieved diplomatic relations based on respect between equals. The Latin American left foresees loss of public support in the United States for maintaining the embargo. It believes it will now be more difficult for the United States to embargo Venezuela. And everyone seems to think that these developments will speed up the accord between the Colombian government and the guerrilla opposition, the FARC, in which Cuba has played a mediating role.

From my point of view, the move by Obama was the single most positive foreign policy decision he had made in his term of office, amidst a record that has been otherwise rather dismal. It is not magic, but it changes the atmosphere. If the Republicans in Congress prove too intransigent, it may only force Obama to go further. Already, in an interview with the Associated Press, he has said that he does not rule out a similar move with Iran, even though he says it will be more difficult.

Writing in La Jornada, Marcos Roitman Rosenmann applauds the accord under the title: “Cuba: Dignity Wins Battles.” Perhaps that is the lesson too for Obama. In the long run, dealing successfully with other countries requires dignity, not only by the weak but by the strong. Somewhat reluctantly, it is remotely possible that Obama, his Secretary of State John Kerry, and potential Democratic presidential candidate and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton may be dragged into acknowledging this instead of continuing to prate about the United States being the “leader” of the virtuous, holding at bay the “vicious” of the world.

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The Paradoxical Strength of Germany’s Merkel http://iwallerstein.com/the-paradoxical-strength-of-germanys-merkel/ http://iwallerstein.com/the-paradoxical-strength-of-germanys-merkel/#comments Mon, 15 Dec 2014 05:00:50 +0000 http://www.iwallerstein.com/?p=1875 Today, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany feels free to criticize openly and even harshly all the powerful nations with which she deals. They all continue to try to court her. She has incredibly high support in German polls, and seemingly in world public opinion. Yet nothing in her background would lead anyone to expect this remarkable show of strength for herself personally and through her for Germany as a nation. This is a paradox that needs to be explained.

She started life as a physical chemist with a Ph.D. from a university in the German Democratic Republic (DDR). She navigated the political scene as a non-participant. She joined the government-approved Free German Youth but did not participate in its coming of age ceremony, preferring to follow a Protestant ceremony. Her father was a Protestant pastor.

She entered political life only at the moment that East Germany was collapsing, and rose rapidly in the transitional government. With formal integration into the German Federal Republic, she became an active member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Elected to Parliament, she was soon in the cabinet, and was considered a protégé of Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

In pursuing her ascension within the CDU, she had to overcome several negatives. She was a woman. She was from the old East German zone. She was a Protestant in a party that was largely supported by Catholic voters. After the CDU lost an election to the Social-Democratic Party (SPD) in 2002, she became the Secretary-General of the CDU and then its Leader. The CDU with its partner party in Bavaria, the Christian Social Union (CSU), together narrowly won the 2005 election. Neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD had enough support to govern alone and had to form a grand coalition. In the vote of parliament for Chancellor, Merkel was chosen, but with considerable opposition.

Today, some nine years later, she has become the longest-serving head of government in the European Union, with undisputed control of the politics and foreign policy of her country. In her recent re-election as leader of her party, she received 96.7% of the vote.

Clearly, a part of her present strength is the seemingly strong economic parameters of Germany, with very positive export surpluses and relatively low unemployment. Merkel has taken this position to pursue quietly but very effectively firm foreign policy objectives.

She has chided very publicly France (and Italy) for not meeting their obligations under European Union (EU) policy to reduce their fiscal deficit to less than 3%. She met strong resistance from President François Hollande of France, who came into office originally as a sort of “anti-Merkel” calling for greater flexibility in the application of EU fiscal obligations. The outcome of this public disagreement was France’s reshuffling of its cabinet. Manuel Valls, who has a position close to that of Merkel, was named as Prime Minister, and Arnaud Montebourg, representing the point of view of left elements in France, resigned from the cabinet. Not only has Hollande ceded more or less to Merkel but he gets no reward for it from French public opinion, his polls declining catastrophically while Merkel’s are higher than ever.

Merkel has been equally ready to take on Great Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron. Cameron thought that, as fellow conservatives, Merkel would understand his need to make strong demands on the EU that would help him hold off the growing anti-EU sentiment in Great Britain. There have been two immediate issues. The EU has a complicated mode of fiscal adjustment in the sums that members must pay each year. This year, Great Britain was assessed an extra 1.7 billion pounds and Cameron has flatly refused to pay it, although such reassessments are quite normal.

More important however is Cameron’s demand that Great Britain be allowed to create quotas for migrants from other EU countries. Merkel has made it clear, very loudly, that she regards free movement of EU citizens within the EU as a cornerstone of the EU, untouchable. She warned him that pursuing such a policy would only be possible if Great Britain left the EU, exactly what Cameron is trying to avoid. Yet, Cameron’s internal political squeeze is so great that he has no alternative but to continue to plead with Merkel.

Merkel was been equally critical of President Obama. Although presumably strongly supportive of a close relation with the United States, she has publicly expressed her great disappointment at the report that the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) has been spying on her directly and more generally on German internal affairs. All Obama promised to do was to review the most grievous aspects of such espionage, while Merkel has said that the end does not justify the means and that “trust needs to be rebuilt…[W]ords will not be sufficient.”

Perhaps more important however is probably her persistent foot-dragging on Ukraine sanctions. She has frustrated all U.S. attempts to increase sanctions, insisting on the priority of diplomacy.

That brings us to the question of her position on Russia. Publicly her criticisms of Russia’s policies in the Ukraine are stringent and growing stronger. In practice, Merkel and President Vladimir Putin of Russia have spoken directly more than 40 times since the so-called Ukraine crisis began. Merkel is fluent in Russian and Putin in German, so communication is quite clear. The search for a diplomatic “solution” to the differences is supported very strongly by Germany’s Foreign Minister Franz-Walter Steinmeier of the SPD who has long sought to pursue friendly diplomacy. This is seconded by the more than 4000 German firms who have direct economic interests in Russia. Further sanctions might hurt Germany as much as Russia.

One leading British conservative newspaper, The Daily Telegraph, evaluated very sensibly Merkel’s political secret. “She makes deals, not speeches, and puts compromise ahead of controversy….She is the ultimate political realist, always willing to strike a deal, but never at any price.”

Merkel is a centrist conservative and in no way a radical of any sort. In a sense what she has been trying to do is to teach other powerful countries and their leaders that, if they want a centrist conservative outcome, they have to play the game her way. Of course, this assumes that the fundamental structure of the world-system is not itself under threat, and that Germany can continue to seem so economically strong. I doubt that. I think that several years from now Germany will most probably succumb to more of the negatives the current state of the world-system is imposing on all countries. Still, for the moment Angela Merkel rules the roost.

 

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